Cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz has marked a small decline, but there’s been no major disruption to key oil infrastructure so far, easing some of the worst fears about the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Rystad researchers conclude there is a lower probability of the conflict escalating into a full-blown war and causing a huge spike in prices. But a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran remains the most important market-moving event to watch for.

Tensions between Israel and Iran have raised fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and LNG. Experts warn that even the threat of closure could rattle markets and push energy prices sharply higher.